The Bel Air sales that defined the top of the market this year came from foreclosure auctions, trustee sales and auction bidding. Each seller faced a deadline set by a lender, an estate or an auction calendar. Meanwhile, owners who can choose when to sell face a city transfer tax that takes close to six cents of every dollar of the sale price once that price reaches $10.9 million. That leaves two different prices in the same neighborhood. One is set by owners who had to sell. The other is the price a voluntary seller needs to come out whole, and in 2026 the distance between them has widened.
The 5.95 Percent a Voluntary Seller Has to Clear
For transactions closing after June 30, 2026, the City of Los Angeles applies a 4% Measure ULA tax to transfers above $5.4 million and below $10.9 million. At $10.9 million or more, the rate is 5.5%. Both sit on top of the city's 0.45% base transfer tax, so the combined rate is 4.45% in the middle band and 5.95% at the top. The current schedule is posted on the Los Angeles Office of Finance Measure ULA FAQ. Bel Air sits inside city limits. Nearly every estate discussed here clears the $10.9 million line easily.
The clearest 2026 example is 2100 Stratford Circle. Anthony Davis bought the 17,000-plus-square-foot home in 2021 for $31 million. He listed it at $39.9 million almost a year before it closed and sold it in July for $32 million, a discount of close to 20%. The Real Deal reported that the ULA tax on the sale came to close to $1.8 million. After that tax, he walked away with less than he paid five years earlier.
That is the math every voluntary Bel Air seller now works through. A $1 million paper gain becomes a loss once the tax is counted, and that's before commissions or carrying costs. To come out ahead, a discretionary seller has to sell for roughly 6% more than they would have needed before ULA. Sellers whose timing was set by someone else don't face that test.
Three Prices Set by Someone Else's Deadline
The year's most visible Bel Air trades had one thing in common. In each case, a creditor or an auction calendar decided when the sale happened.
| Property | Earlier asking price | 2026 outcome | How it traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Encantada | $250 million in 2023; $170 million in April 2026 | Sold for $130 million in July | Foreclosure auction in Pomona |
| 1116 Chantilly Road | $35.7 million when first listed in 2023 | In contract at a list price near $20 million, reported in August | After a 2024 notice of default and a 2025 trustee's sale |
| Crown Bel Air portfolio | $105 million as a package | Top bid of $54.4 million; in contract as of September | Concierge Auctions, bidding closed in May |
Casa Encantada is the 40,000-square-foot estate James Dolena designed in 1938, set on 8.4 acres overlooking the Bel-Air Country Club. Gary Winnick asked $225 million for it in 2019 and $250 million in 2023. Records show the property had been used as collateral on a loan from CIM Group. It was relisted at $170 million in April 2026, and three months later it went to the highest bidder. The Los Angeles Times reported that the buyer paid $130 million through a limited liability company. The house has set records before. David Murdock paid $12.4 million in 1980, a national record at the time, and Winnick paid $94 million in 2000. This time, the price came out of a foreclosure process rather than a negotiation between two willing parties.
1116 Chantilly Road shows the same pattern at a smaller price. When the seven-bedroom house first came to market in 2023, it was priced at about $1,929 per square foot. By the time it went into contract this summer, the list price was about $1,081 per square foot. In between, a notice of default was filed in September 2024 with more than $15 million in debt outstanding. A trustee's sale followed, and a Santa Ana-based limited liability company took ownership in October 2025. The owner who agreed to the 2026 contract had come into the property through a trustee's sale. That owner's costs had nothing to do with the original 2023 price.
The Crown Bel Air portfolio is the auction version. Bassam Alghanim began assembling the roughly 16-acre group of Bel Air and Hollywood Hills parcels in 1979. The two "landmark estates" at 1005 and 1031 Bel Air Court were listed together at $29.5 million with a starting bid of $10 million. The winning bid for the full portfolio, $54.4 million, works out to about $1,287 per square foot. Both Chantilly and Crown were reported as pending contracts. No closing has been reported for either yet.
Why Those Numbers Travel Further Than They Should
A foreclosure auction ends when the bidding stops. A trustee's sale moves on the lender's schedule, not the owner's. An auction with a $10 million starting bid on $29.5 million of listed property lets the bidders find the floor. None of these sellers had to match a past purchase price plus 5.95%, so they could accept numbers a voluntary owner would turn down.
Those numbers still end up in the record. A buyer looking at Bel Air in fall 2026 sees Casa Encantada at roughly half its 2023 asking price, Chantilly at roughly 56% of its first list price, and Crown at about 52% of its package ask. Read together, they suggest a neighborhood marked down by close to half. They actually show what each asset brought when the owner had no time to wait.
The broader market looks steadier than those three deals. The Real Deal's coverage of a weekly Los Angeles County tally of $4 million-plus listings said buyers had become more "price sensitive" by late August. In one week, the number of signed contracts was about flat with a year earlier, at 20, while asking dollar volume rose 40% to $177 million. In the week the Crown contract was counted, 19 homes went into contract countywide, up 36% from a year earlier. Buyers are still active. They are choosy about price, and the deepest discounts this year came from owners who couldn't hold out.
The Listings Now Testing the Other Price
Two fall listings will show whether voluntary sellers can get a price set on their own terms.
638 Siena Way, a three-story house designed by Zoltan Pali above the fourth hole at Bel-Air Country Club, came to market in early October at almost $38 million. Jonathan Kelly, the Squishmallows creator, bought it in 2023 for $26 million. Before that, it had first been listed at $47.5 million, just before the mansion tax took effect. Kelly never lived in the house and has rented it out. He told the Wall Street Journal, "It's an asset, and it's time to exit." If it closed at $38 million, the combined 5.95% city transfer tax would come to about $2.26 million. Kelly's listing agent told The Real Deal that the price could be an "entry point" for the street and described how the market has adjusted to the tax:
"The L.A. mansion tax did slow down the high-end market... but like anything, people have gotten accustomed to it."
The second listing is 10772 Chalon Road, the Spanish-style house Alphonzo Bell commissioned in 1928. Bell was the oilman who created Bel Air and its country club. Architect Mark Daniels designed the house. Michael Wexler bought it in 2010 for $5.5 million, began a restoration in 2021 and finished in August 2026. It is now asking $32.5 million. The restoration aimed for 1920s standards instead of a contemporary rebuild. It includes artisan-made flooring, cabinetry and tile, a formal living room fireplace carved from a single slab, a gym in the space of the original indoor pool, and 26 redwood sequoias planted around the grounds that could take 40 to 50 years to mature. A house like this depends on its history, craftsmanship and presentation to command a price above what the distressed comps suggest.
The November Ballot Leaves the Math in Place
Voluntary sellers who hoped for relief from ULA will not get it this fall. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association's statewide initiative aimed at transfer taxes like ULA was withdrawn from the November 3, 2026 ballot after the Governor and Legislature placed ACA 22 on the same ballot. ACA 22 would require a two-thirds vote for future citizen-initiated special taxes. In a June 26 report, the Los Angeles City Attorney said it would take effect January 1, 2027, and would not apply to taxes approved before then, Measure ULA included.
At the city level, the Council shelved a proposed 10-year exemption for new apartment buildings and approved a separate measure for Palisades Fire properties. That measure appears in the city's November voter pamphlet as Proposition TE. It would offer a one-time ULA exemption or refund for qualifying fire-damaged or destroyed homes sold by the owner of record on January 7, 2025, for sales between that date and January 6, 2030. For a Bel Air estate outside that program, the 5.95% top rate stays in place for the foreseeable future.
Questions Buyers and Sellers Are Raising
Should a buyer offer on a voluntary listing based on Casa Encantada or Chantilly Road? Those prices came out of foreclosure and trustee processes. They show what a property brings when the owner has no time to wait. A voluntary seller weighing an offer is comparing it with their own purchase price plus the transfer tax, which is a different calculation.
Does a sale price just below $10.9 million matter? Yes. Under the Office of Finance schedule, a transfer at $10.9 million or more is taxed at 5.95% combined, while one just below is taxed at 4.45%. On a property near that line, the difference is large enough to affect where sellers set prices and offers.
What would actually narrow the gap between the two prices? More voluntary sales. Siena Way and Chalon Road are both on the market this fall, and their final prices, along with however long they take to sell, will be the first 2026 Bel Air results set by owners who chose when to sell.
When the most visible comps come from foreclosures and auctions, a voluntary sale's price depends on presentation, provenance and finding the right buyer. Andrea Alberts prepares Bel Air estates for that kind of sale, using editorial visual storytelling and access to Sotheby's private-sale and auction channels. For a valuation that reflects what your property can bring on your schedule, request Get My Valuation.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.